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AroniSmartInvest™ in Action: Machine Learning, Bayesian Network, Stock Segmentation, Market Sentiment Analyses Uncovers Key Stocks on May 19, 2021

AroniSmartInvest™ in Action: Stocks, Market Sentiment and Profile Analysis May 19, 2021

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On May 19, 2021, the stock market sentiment has started to head towards negativity, after a long period of positivity. In the analysis conducted  by AroniSmart™ team on April 30, 2021, investors appeared to have started finding direction and answers on one of the key questions the market actors were facing: what is coming next?  Although the answer to the question remained elusive, there appeared to be a growing consensus on where the market was  heading, following the up and down movements, around an overall upward trend,  observed since the beginning of the year. While the overall upward trend was  observed since the beginning of the year,  by late-April the trend has shifted downward.  As of the closing hour of  May 19, 2021 the dynamics of the stock market were different.

In the previous analyses,  AroniSmart™ team had continued to look at the major positive signs at the start of Q2 2021, building on the volatility dynamics  observed in early April,  March and February 2021,  (see some dynamics here: ). 

On April 30, 2021 the stock market performance appeared to be impacted  by factors similar to those that were driving the volatility as of April 2, 2021:  speculative considerations on the economy,  profit taking,  bonds prices,  interest rates,  options trading, political agenda, and  related news about some key stocks, especially those related to Electic Vehicules (EV) Technology, Solar Energy, Cryptocurrency, Retail, and Banking. Since then, earnings and inflation concerns have taken over.

As of the closing hour of  May 19, 2021 the key stock market indices continued to register losses ( Dow Jones Industrial Average remains almost flat with a gain of 0.22%, Nasdaq  lost 3.53 %, S&P 500 lost 0.47%). AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the Machine Learning, Big Data, Bayesian Network Analysis, Neural Network Analysis, Text Analytics  and Sentiment and Valence Analysis capabilities of the new improved  AroniSmartInvest™, and  AroniSmartIntelligence™ looked at the stock performance, market sentiment index and events driving the stock market on May 19, 2021 ( For More on AroniSoft LLC and AroniSmart products click here). 

AroniSmart™ team  continues to build on earlier analyses in  2021. The analyses reinforce the fact that the market sentiment is in the negative territory,  as investors appear to continue struggling with uncertainty and volatility and both upbeat expectations on some earnings and downbeat actions, due to inflation and other concerns. 


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 A little bit of the insights on the market events and sentiments, from AroniSmart™ team's findings, based on the data as of May 19, 2021. 

AroniSmart™ team analyzed the key stories, leveraging the Machine Learning, Big Data Bayesian Network Analysis, Neural Network Analysis, Text Analytics, and Sentiment and Valence Analysis capabilities of  AroniSmartInvest™ and AroniSmartIntelligence™ and uncovered actionable insights..

General Market Events and Sentiments

The Market Sentiment is steadily shifting to negative territories  across several sectors and sites.  The news continue to  focus on earnings for big  companies such as Walmart (WMT),  Target (TGT), and small companies. However, inflation,  uncertian news on EV (electric vehicles),  cryptocurrencies, chip shortages,  and crowd investments continue to weight heavily.  The performance of some of these stocks remains puzzling, especially those whose stock prices lost despite the fact that their earnings and sales beat expectations with a high margin. The analysis highlights multiple dynamics, for the stock profile, the segmentation of stocks, the market profile and the sentiment in general. 

Segmentation and Profile 2021 04 02

AroniSmartIntelligence™ Analysis of Positive and Negative Sentiment words.

The sample screen shot below shows some of the  key stocks tickers, with high overall index in the AroniSmartInvest Tags word cloud and Bayesian Network analysis, as of May 19, 2021. A more complete view may be produced using the Bayesian Network and Sentiment Analysis capabilities in the Machine Learning module or AroniSmartInvest or both the Neural Network and  Bayesian Network  capabilities of AroniSmartIntelligence™ 

 

Sentiment Words Clouds Small 2021 03 03

From the figure above, it appears the  Tech,  Energy, Economy and Inflation related tags are prominent, highlighting the dominance of news  about  earnings, inflation, Tech companies challenges and  employment. The  dominance of Retail, Energy, Tech, Oil  and Healthcare stocks and news related word tags remain dominant as expected. 

As depicted in the complete  Words Cloud and Tags view, for which a partial screen shot is given  above,  it was found that the  positivity (see words in green) continues to be driven by words such as  comeback, health,  on course, support, improv, innov, interest, etc. The words cloud points to the continued  improving companies earnings, healthcare, retail, oil energy , COVID-19 vaccinations,  new innovations, Solar Energy, and the continued government support to improve economic performance. 

The negativity continues  to come from the market volatility, downturn, risk, rough, debt,  and job market,  and overal challenges related to uncertainties and risks while trying to overcome the last crisis, while avoiding potential pitfalls. 

AroniSmartInvest™ in Action: Segmentation and Key Stocks Driving the Market Sentiment

The stock analysis continues to reinforce the earlier findings on the sectors driving the markets. The stocks include TECH, Retail, Banking, Healthcare, Energy and Transportation.  Tech sector appears to have mixed results, whereas Healthcare, Retail, Transportation, Energy, and Banking maintain their upward momentum.   In the current analysis, the optimal segmentation analysis continued to  keep the 10 segments, with an additional bucket  of outliers (-1), with different performance, in terms of technicals and fundamentals, with most TECH companies shifting to segments  with decling momentum (see below). 

Segmentation and Profile 2021 04 02

The  list of stocks highly impacted on May 30, 2021 has varied since the last analysis.  TECH, Retail, Banking, chip, Energy, Car makers, and Retail companies  have a high weight. Apple (AAPL), MicroSoft (MSFT),  Johnson & Johnson (J&J), Tesla(TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Moderna(MDNA), Pfizer(PFE),  General Motors (GM),  Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM),  Oracle(ORCL),  Bank of America (BAC),  JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM),  Walmart (WMT), AT&T (T), Cisco Systems(CSCO), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), NVIDIA(NVDA),  etc...  continue to drive the market and appear in the analysis.  The Bitcoin and EV stocks also continue to play a major role. The figure below shows a sample of stocks in news in the High Growth and Short Term Growth groups, accross all the 10 identified  segments, mostly mentionned in  the news on May 19, 2021.

 

Bayes Net All Stocks 1 2021 04 02

More detailed analyses, including stock segmentation and profile analysis can be conducted using  Big Data, Machine Learning, Neural Network, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities of  AroniSmartInvest and AroniSmartIntelligence™.  


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